Sanmina deep dive and 2025 outlook $SANM

Sanmina Corporation is a global provider of integrated manufacturing solutions, serving original equipment manufacturers in communications, medical, defense, aerospace, industrial, computing, and cloud infrastructure markets. The company specializes in end-to-end services ranging from design and engineering to printed circuit boards, backplanes, enclosures, and complete system assembly. It is recognized as one of the leaders in the Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) industry with operations spread across more than 20 countries. Headquartered in San Jose, California, Sanmina plays a crucial role in mission-critical products where reliability and quality are paramount. Its reputation is built on decades of engineering expertise, complex supply chain management, and focus on regulated markets.

Sanmina reported its most recent earnings on July 28, 2025, for the fiscal third quarter ended June 28, 2025. The company posted revenue of $2.04 billion, up about 11 percent year-over-year, exceeding both its guidance and Wall Street expectations. GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $1.26, while non-GAAP EPS reached $1.53, representing growth of over 20 percent from the prior year. Operating margins also improved, with non-GAAP operating margin at 5.7 percent, reflecting favorable business mix and operational efficiencies. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Sanmina guided revenue to $2.0 to $2.1 billion, with non-GAAP EPS between $1.52 and $1.62, underscoring management’s confidence in continued momentum.

The company was founded in 1980 by Milan Mandarić and Jure Sola, beginning as a printed circuit board maker before expanding into backplanes and larger system integration. Its growth accelerated with the acquisition of SCI Systems in 2001, which expanded its global footprint and customer base. Over the decades, Sanmina evolved into a full-scale EMS provider capable of handling design, engineering, and complex manufacturing for some of the world’s largest technology companies. Today, the company continues to leverage its deep expertise in regulated industries such as aerospace, defense, and medical, where compliance and reliability are critical. Sanmina’s history reflects a consistent strategy of moving up the value chain into higher-margin, higher-complexity services.

Sanmina’s product portfolio spans multiple categories that together provide turnkey manufacturing solutions. These include printed circuit boards, backplanes, optical modules, cables and harnesses, plastic and metal enclosures, and full system assembly. In addition to hardware, the company offers engineering design, supply chain management, logistics, and aftermarket support. This breadth allows Sanmina to provide end-to-end lifecycle services for its customers. Its presence in mission-critical sectors means that its facilities must comply with stringent certifications and quality standards, something that differentiates it from competitors who primarily operate in commodity electronics.

The company’s headquarters is located in San Jose, California, positioning it at the center of the technology ecosystem in Silicon Valley. Beyond its U.S. operations, Sanmina maintains a large international footprint across Asia, Europe, and Latin America to serve global customers and ensure supply chain flexibility. Its competitors include Jabil, Flex, Celestica, Benchmark Electronics, and Foxconn, all of which compete for scale, speed, and engineering credibility. Among these, Sanmina is often perceived as a more specialized player with an emphasis on regulated industries and system-level integration. Unlike Foxconn, which is heavily consumer-electronics oriented, Sanmina focuses more on infrastructure, industrial, and medical markets.

The global Electronics Manufacturing Services industry in which Sanmina operates is expected to expand steadily through 2030. Industry analysts project mid-single to high-single digit compound annual growth rates driven by demand for cloud infrastructure, 5G networks, semiconductor capital equipment, renewable energy systems, and aerospace and defense modernization. Outsourcing of electronics manufacturing continues to rise as OEMs seek to reduce costs, focus on core innovation, and mitigate supply chain risks. By 2030, the market is projected to exceed half a trillion dollars in value, creating opportunities for companies like Sanmina that can combine engineering sophistication with global manufacturing scale. Growth will also be fueled by reshoring and regionalization trends as governments and customers demand more secure supply chains.

Sanmina’s position in this market is strengthened by its recent $3 billion deal to acquire ZT Systems’ manufacturing operations, which expands its role in data center infrastructure. This acquisition aligns the company with secular growth trends in AI, cloud, and hyperscale computing, sectors projected to outpace overall EMS industry growth. As hyperscale customers look for trusted partners to manage increasingly complex systems, Sanmina’s integration capabilities and geographic reach should allow it to capture share. With demand for AI servers and cloud data centers expected to grow at double-digit CAGRs through 2030, Sanmina is strategically positioned in one of the most attractive corners of the EMS market.

Competition remains intense, with Jabil and Flex commanding larger scale and Foxconn dominating consumer markets. Celestica and Benchmark provide strong competition in niche regulated industries. However, Sanmina differentiates itself with a focus on high-complexity, mission-critical projects rather than high-volume consumer electronics. Its ability to combine system integration, engineering design, and strict regulatory compliance provides a moat that many competitors struggle to replicate. Customers in medical or aerospace, for example, value Sanmina’s certifications and experience over lower-cost alternatives.

Sanmina’s unique advantage lies in its specialization. While peers compete heavily on price and scale, Sanmina wins on credibility in sectors where failure is not an option. Its broad capabilities, from printed circuit boards to fully integrated systems, enable it to be a one-stop partner for customers who need reliability at scale. Moreover, its recent pivot to cloud and AI infrastructure manufacturing through acquisitions gives it access to high-growth opportunities that align with global technology investment priorities. These differentiators provide Sanmina with resilience and long-term relevance in a competitive landscape.

The company’s leadership is anchored by Jure Sola, its co-founder and current Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Having guided the company from its founding through multiple strategic expansions, Sola brings decades of deep industry knowledge and a hands-on leadership style. Jonathan P. Faust, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, oversees financial operations and has been instrumental in maintaining strong free cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. Charles Mason Jr., Executive Vice President of Worldwide Sales, drives customer acquisition and growth across global accounts, playing a vital role in diversifying Sanmina’s revenue base. Together, this team combines continuity, financial discipline, and market focus.

Financially, Sanmina has shown steady performance with some cyclical fluctuations over the past five years. Revenue peaked at roughly $8.5 billion in 2023, dipped slightly in 2024, and rebounded to around $8.0 billion in 2025. This translates into a modest compound annual growth rate, with overall upward momentum despite industry cyclicality. Earnings per share have generally trended upward, with non-GAAP EPS showing stronger consistency than GAAP EPS due to restructuring charges and stock-based compensation. The company has managed to expand operating margins through cost discipline and improved mix of higher-margin regulated products.

Over the last five years, Sanmina has consistently generated positive cash flow from operations, enabling share repurchases and maintaining a strong balance sheet. As of mid-2025, the company held nearly $800 million in cash and equivalents, providing flexibility to fund acquisitions and organic investments. Free cash flow has been robust, supported by disciplined working capital management. Debt remains manageable, with the company maintaining an overall healthy leverage profile compared to industry norms. This financial foundation allows Sanmina to weather demand fluctuations while investing in growth.

The bull case for Sanmina emphasizes its alignment with long-term growth markets. First, its acquisition of ZT Systems’ manufacturing positions it squarely in hyperscale and AI server infrastructure, where demand is projected to soar. Second, its focus on regulated and mission-critical industries gives it stable, higher-margin revenue streams. Third, its strong free cash flow and balance sheet provide capital flexibility for growth and shareholder returns.

The bear case centers on risks from competition and industry cyclicality. Sanmina competes against larger peers that can leverage scale to win contracts, potentially pressuring margins. Its reliance on cyclical markets such as communications and industrial systems could create volatility in revenues. Integration risk from large acquisitions like ZT Systems also looms, with the potential for execution challenges or customer attrition.

The stock is in a long term base building on the monthly chart, stage 1, on a stage 2 bullish markup on the weekly chart and stage 3 on the daily chart looking for consolidation to move higher to the $125 mark where it should take a break to the lower side.

We would be interested in the stock at the $95 range for the long term.

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