Mobileye earnings review and 2025 outlook $MBLY

Mobileye Global Inc. is an Israel-headquartered company (though U.S.-domiciled) focused on advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving technologies using computer vision, AI, sensors and mapping. It was founded in 1999 and is based in Jerusalem. The company’s 2024 revenues (exact figure not publicly isolated) are understood to be in the low-billion-dollar range; a 2025 guide implies full-year revenue of roughly $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. Top competitors include the likes of Waymo LLC, Tesla Inc. (in self-driving/robotaxi), and Aptiv PLC (in ADAS sensors & systems). The company operates globally but has major ties to automakers and the automotive supply chain.

The company reported third-quarter revenue of $504 million, beating analyst expectations of about $480.9 million.  They also raised their full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range between $1.85 billion and $1.89 billion, up from their prior lower bound of ~$1.77 billion.  

Founding, Founders, Funding, Products, Key Competitors, Headquarters

Mobileye was founded in 1999 by Professor Amnon Shashua (then at Hebrew University) along with colleagues Norio Ichihashi and Ziv Aviram.  The original idea was using a camera-based vision system to detect vehicles and pedestrians and add intelligence to inexpensive sensors. Over time the company raised private funding (for example a 2013 stake sale valuing the company near $1.5 billion) and in 2017 it was acquired by Intel Corporation for approximately $15.3 billion.  Then in 2022 Mobileye went public via an IPO on NASDAQ under ticker MBLY.  Mobileye’s product offerings include its EyeQ family of system-on-chip hardware, its software stack for ADAS/AV, its Road Experience Management (REM) crowdsourced mapping, its SuperVision and Chauffeur and Drive platforms for hands-off and no-driver vehicles.  Its headquarters is in Jerusalem, Israel.  Key competitors include Waymo (owning self-driving stack), Tesla (in-house autonomy), Aptiv (ADAS sensors/ECUs), and automotive supplier Bosch (ADAS modules) among others. Mobileye is positioned as a supplier to OEMs and mobility fleets globally.


Market the Company Operates In, Growth Expectations for 2030, CAGR

Mobileye operates in the automotive mobility and autonomy market, including ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) which is evolving toward increasingly automated (hands-off) driving and eventually full autonomy (robotaxis, autonomous fleets). The broader ADAS/Autonomous Vehicle (AV) market is expected to grow strongly over the coming decade as regulatory, safety, cost and consumer factors drive adoption of automated systems. Some estimates suggest double-digit annual growth (CAGR) in ADAS and even higher for autonomous mobility services. For example, the ride-hailing and robotaxi market is projected by some to grow from today’s tens of billions of dollars to hundreds of billions by 2030.  Given Mobileye’s guiding revenue of about $1.8-1.9 billion for 2025 and its ambitions in robotaxi and ADAS, a target market for 2030 might be several times that. If we assume, for illustration, a CAGR of say ~20% from $1.9 billion in 2025 to ~ $4 billion in 2030 it would imply strong growth. The actual market could be larger given mobility services, autonomous ride-hailing and global cascading of ADAS features. The company’s embedded hardware and software strategy gives it exposure to both the incremental upgrade market (ADAS) and the transformative autonomy market (robotaxi). Demand drivers include regulatory safety mandates (e.g., automated emergency braking, lane keeping), the shift to electric vehicles which often bundle advanced sensors, and fleet mobility services deploying autonomous vehicles.


Competitors

Key competitors to Mobileye include Waymo (a subsidiary of Alphabet) which focuses on full autonomous driving and robotaxi services, Tesla which develops in-house hardware/software autonomy, Aptiv which supplies sensors and ECUs to automakers, and Bosch which offers ADAS modules and sensor fusion capabilities. In the ADAS supply chain space Mobileye competes on its hardware + software stack and mapping/data services. For robotaxi and autonomy more broadly, competition is intensifying and includes both established suppliers and new entrants. The differentiator for Mobileye versus some of these peers is its integrated vision-based approach (camera + AI + mapping) and its broad OEM adoption.


Unique Differentiation of the Company Over Competitors

Mobileye’s key differentiation lies in its vertically integrated hardware-software-mapping stack optimized for mass-market deployment. While many autonomy players focus purely on software or services, Mobileye offers camera-based system-on-chips (EyeQ family) plus software, plus its crowdsourced mapping (REM) and large installed base of vehicles which gives it scale and data advantage. Its long tenure in ADAS with many carmakers provides a ramp path into higher automation levels. Because of its focus on safety, scale and affordability, Mobileye is positioned for volume OEM deployment rather than niche premium only. Its partnership strategy (supplying many automakers rather than building its own consumer vehicle) is also a strength in reaching scale.


Management Team (max 3 members)

Amnon Shashua is President and CEO of Mobileye. He is a co-founder and has an academic background in computer vision and AI. Saf Yeboah-Amankwah serves as Chairman. (Available publicly) The leadership team emphasizes automotive safety, mapping, vision systems and autonomy strategy. Their continuity and deep domain expertise give credibility to Mobileye’s long-term roadmap.


Financial Performance Overview (last 5 years: revenue growth, CAGR, earnings growth, balance sheet)

Over the past several years Mobileye has been positioned for growth, but the company has had volatility and inventory overhang issues. For example, in 2024 Mobileye’s sales missed expectations due to excess customer inventory.  For recent quarters: Q2 2025 revenue of ~$506 million represented ~15.3% year-over-year growth. Earnings (EPS) were $0.13 compared to $0.09 a year ago.  While revenue growth is positive, net income has been negative in recent periods (e.g., net loss of −$3.09 billion reported over last four quarters as of mid-2025) according to one source.  The balance sheet is not provided in full detail here, but Mobileye is backed by Intel and went public in 2022 raising capital, giving it resources to fund R&D and scaling. The losses and negative margins reflect heavy investment in autonomy, mapping and scale-up. If we look at revenue growth from, say, 2023 to 2025 (assuming 2023 ~1.4–1.5 billion to 2025 ~1.8–1.9 billion) we might infer a CAGR in the high teens (~15-20%). On earnings per share, the positive turn to $0.13 in Q2 2025 versus $0.09 prior year shows improvement but still modest absolute numbers and losses overall. Overall, financial performance shows improving top-line momentum, but profitability and sustained positive earnings remain ahead. The balance sheet strength via Intel backing and IPO funding gives Mobileye runway to invest in growth rather than immediate profit.


Bull Case for the Stock

  • Strong secular growth in ADAS and autonomous driving markets: As automakers increasingly adopt driver-assistance features and move toward higher automation, Mobileye is well-positioned as a major supplier.
  • Integrated stack with scale: Mobileye’s combination of chip, software, mapping and data gives potential differentiation and moat in the transition to autonomous vehicles.
  • Upside from robotaxi and mobility services: The ramp-up of autonomous ride-hailing or robotaxi fleets (e.g., partnership with fleet operators) could unlock a large new revenue stream beyond traditional OEM ADAS.

Bear Case for the Stock

  • Competition and slower adoption risk: The autonomy/ADAS market is crowded (Waymo, Tesla, Aptiv, Bosch) and OEM decision cycles are long; slower ramp or losing design wins could hurt growth.
  • Profitability and execution risk: Despite revenue growth, Mobileye has posted sizable losses; scaling to profitable operations and large volume remains a challenge.
  • Dependency on macro/automotive cycles: OEM production, automotive supply-chain constraints, and customer inventory overhang (as seen in 2024) can impact Mobileye’s top-line and margins.

The stock is in a neutral consolidation stage 1 on all three timeframes with a range of $13 to $15.9 in the short to medium term. We would avoid the stock for now.

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