Vinfast Auto deep dive and 2025 outlook $VFS

VinFast Overview

VinFast Auto Ltd. (NASDAQ: VFS) is an electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer based in Vietnam and a subsidiary of Vingroup, the country’s largest conglomerate. Founded in 2017, the company has grown rapidly, focusing on producing electric cars, scooters, and buses with ambitions to become a global EV player. VinFast entered the U.S. market in 2022 with the VF 8 SUV and has since expanded sales into Canada and Europe. Despite early challenges with quality and delivery delays, the company has raised significant capital to fund its global expansion. Today, VinFast is positioning itself as an emerging competitor to Tesla, BYD, and other EV players, leveraging Vietnam’s manufacturing strengths.

Most Recent Earnings

VinFast reported its Q2 2025 earnings on August 15, 2025. The company posted a net loss of $502 million, widening from $431 million in the prior year’s quarter, with an adjusted EPS loss of $0.30, missing analyst expectations of a $0.26 loss. Revenue came in at $456 million, up 24% year-over-year, but slightly below consensus estimates of $470 million. Deliveries reached 23,000 vehicles for the quarter, driven by VF 8 shipments to North America and VF e34 sales in Vietnam. For Q3 2025, VinFast guided for revenue between $500–$550 million and deliveries of 26,000–28,000 vehicles, reaffirming full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $2.1–$2.3 billion.

Founding and Background

VinFast was founded in 2017 by Pham Nhat Vuong, Vietnam’s first billionaire and chairman of Vingroup. The company started with internal combustion engine vehicles before transitioning entirely to electric vehicles in 2021, aligning with global decarbonization trends. Early funding came primarily from Vingroup and Vuong himself, who committed billions of dollars to support VinFast’s international ambitions. In August 2023, VinFast went public on NASDAQ through a SPAC merger with Black Spade Acquisition Co., achieving a valuation exceeding $85 billion at its debut, though the stock has since been volatile. Its headquarters are in Hai Phong, Vietnam, with U.S. offices in Los Angeles, California.

Products and Expansion

VinFast’s EV lineup includes the VF 6, VF 7, VF 8, and VF 9 SUVs, along with the VF e34 compact EV targeted at the Vietnamese market. The company also manufactures electric scooters and buses for domestic use. In the U.S., the VF 8 was the first model delivered, though initial reviews cited quality and software issues, prompting updates and recalls. The company has ambitious expansion plans, including a $4 billion EV factory under construction in North Carolina, expected to begin production in 2026. Key competitors include Tesla, BYD, Hyundai-Kia, and emerging EV startups like Rivian and Lucid.

Market Overview

VinFast operates in the global electric vehicle market, which is projected to reach over $1.5 trillion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15–17%. EV adoption is being driven by government policies, declining battery costs, and consumer demand for sustainable mobility. North America and Europe remain the largest markets for EV expansion, while China dominates global EV sales. VinFast aims to carve a niche as a lower-cost alternative to premium EVs while offering advanced technology and strong after-sales service.

Market Growth Outlook

By 2030, EVs are expected to represent over 50% of new car sales in key markets like China, the U.S., and Europe. The CAGR of global EV deliveries is forecast at 20% through 2030, supported by infrastructure buildouts like charging networks. VinFast is targeting 750,000 annual EV sales capacity by 2030, positioning itself as one of the top 10 EV manufacturers worldwide. Its strategy focuses on vertical integration, localized production in the U.S. and Europe, and aggressive pricing compared to competitors.

Competitors

VinFast faces stiff competition from both established and emerging EV makers. Tesla remains the dominant EV brand in the U.S. and Europe, with unmatched scale and margins. BYD is rapidly expanding globally, leveraging its battery production capacity and strong cost efficiencies. Rivian and Lucid compete in the premium EV SUV and sedan categories, while Hyundai and Kia are gaining traction with affordable and reliable EV models.

Differentiation

VinFast differentiates itself by combining Vietnam’s low-cost manufacturing base with a global sales strategy, aiming to deliver affordable EVs in premium SUV categories. Unlike many EV startups, VinFast has the backing of Vingroup, providing substantial financial support for international expansion. The company also emphasizes bundled services like battery leasing, which lowers upfront purchase costs, and an integrated ecosystem of EV scooters and buses, catering to both emerging and developed markets.

Management Team

Pham Nhat Vuong serves as Chairman of VinFast and is widely regarded as the driving force behind its global ambitions, having committed billions from his personal fortune. Le Thi Thu Thuy is the CEO of VinFast, bringing prior experience from investment banking and leadership roles within Vingroup. She has overseen the company’s IPO, U.S. market entry, and current expansion into Europe and North America.

Financial Performance (Last 5 Years)

VinFast generated modest revenues in its early years selling gas-powered vehicles in Vietnam before transitioning fully to EVs in 2021. Revenue has grown from $634 million in 2020 to $1.6 billion in 2024, representing a 26% CAGR, though losses have widened due to heavy investment. Net losses consistently exceed $2 billion annually, reflecting R&D, global expansion, and plant construction. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged, with significant reliance on Vingroup and Vuong for funding support. Despite this, VinFast maintains over $3 billion in committed capital for near-term operations.

Continued Financial Trajectory

In 2023, revenue growth accelerated due to international shipments, but profitability remains a distant target. Vehicle deliveries increased from 24,000 in 2022 to 66,000 in 2024, with 2025 guidance targeting over 100,000 deliveries. Gross margins remain negative, though the company aims to achieve break-even gross profit by 2027 as volumes scale. Heavy CAPEX for the North Carolina plant and expansion into Europe are expected to pressure free cash flow through at least 2026.

Bull Case for VinFast

  • Backing from Vingroup and Pham Nhat Vuong provides strong financial runway.
  • Global EV demand growth through 2030 supports sales expansion.
  • North Carolina plant will enable U.S. production and lower logistics costs.

Bear Case for VinFast

  • Persistent quality and software issues risk damaging brand reputation.
  • Heavy cash burn with no clear path to profitability in the near term.
  • Fierce competition from Tesla, BYD, and legacy automakers with deeper scale.

The stock is in a stage 1 consolidation (neutral) position on the long term charts. We are not interested in a position yet. We wont be until it moves to over $4

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