1. Overview of the Company
BigBear AI is a publicly traded artificial intelligence company specializing in decision intelligence solutions, primarily serving national security, defense, intelligence, manufacturing, logistics, and supply chain sectors. The company fuses advanced AI, sensor fusion, and analytics to help organizations act with speed and precision in complex environments. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, BigBear AI trades on the NYSE under the ticker BBAI.
2. Most Recent Earnings
For Q2 (quarter ended June 30, 2025), BigBear AI missed both EPS and revenue expectations. The company reported EPS of –$0.71 versus a forecast of –$0.06, and revenue of $32.5 million compared to an expected ~$41.2 million—a shortfall of about 21%. The earnings report was released after markets closed on August 11, 2025. Management withdrew its adjusted EBITDA guidance and lowered full‑year 2025 revenue expectations to $125–$140 million (from $160–$180 million), citing disruptions in federal contracts, notably with the U.S. Army, amid efficiency and modernization efforts.
3. Founding, Founders, Funding, Products, Competitors, Headquarters
- Founding & Headquarters: The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, with corporate infrastructure located in McLean, Virginia as well.
- Founders & Origins: Specific founding details and founders were not available in the current sources.
- Funding: Recent capital raising includes approximately $293 million via at‑the‑market (ATM) facilities, contributing to a record cash position of around $391 million as of June 30, 2025.
- Products & Offerings: The company’s suite includes AI orchestration and sensor fusion, cybersecurity analytics, modeling and simulation, digital identity management, and computer vision—all targeted at defense, intelligence, logistics, and security domains.
- Key Competitors: BigBear AI competes with other AI‑analytics firms such as C3.ai and similar players in the defense intelligence software space.
4. Market & Size, Growth Expectations
BigBear AI operates across dynamic, high‑growth markets: national security AI, defense intelligence, homeland security, logistics, and critical infrastructure analytics.
While precise market size and projections to 2030 weren’t available in current sources, the company expects a surge in government investment driven by legislation—specifically, a tax and spending bill allocating over $170 billion to Homeland Security and $150 billion to Defense for technology investment. Management views this as a structural growth opportunity.
5. Additional Competitors
Additional competitors likely include defense‑focused AI platform providers, advanced analytics firms, and other mission‑ready AI/software vendors in the national security space.
6. Unique Differentiation
BigBear AI’s differentiation is its deep domain expertise merged with AI and sensor fusion across edge operations. The company emphasizes “mission‑ready” AI tailored to high‑stakes military, border, and infrastructure environments—offering integrated analytics and tools beyond generic enterprise AI.
7. Management Team (Highlight up to 3)
- Kevin McAleenan, CEO: Leads strategic vision, emphasizing transformative investments aligned with government spending and international expansion (including a partnership in the UAE).
- Sean Ricker, CFO: Oversees financial strategy and cash management, guiding investments and protecting the balance sheet.
- (Other executives were not detailed in the sources.)
8. Financial Performance Overview (Past 5 Years)
- Revenue Growth: Q2 2025 revenue of $32.5 million compares unfavorably to ~ $39.8 million in Q2 2024, marking an 18% decline.
- CAGR: With limited multi‑year data, precise CAGR cannot be calculated here.
- Earnings Growth: The company continues to post losses. In Q2 2025, net loss rose dramatically to $228.6 million (from $14.4 million in Q2 2024), largely due to non‑cash impairments and derivative valuation changes. Adjusted EBITDA worsened to –$8.5 million (from –$3.7 million).
- Balance Sheet: Cash holdings stand at a strong ~$391 million, supporting strategic investments despite ongoing losses.
9. Bull Case
- Major federal investment opportunities ahead (Homeland Security, Defense funding)
- Strong cash position (~$391 million) enabling aggressive investment and expansion
- Unique positioning in mission‑critical, edge‑AI with domain‑specific expertise
10. Bear Case
- Recent earnings shortfall, guidance cuts, and withdrawal of EBITDA outlook raise concerns
- Heavy reliance on unstable federal contracts, with disruptions already impacting revenue
- Persistent unprofitability with increasing losses suggests longer path to sustainability
The stock is in a stage 4 markdown on all 3 time frames and should get to $3.55 – $4 in the next few days or weeks. We would avoid the stock.