Samsara Inc. Deep dive and 2025 outlook $IOT

Company Overview

Subtitle: The Connected Operations Cloud for the Physical World
Samsara Inc. is a leading provider of IoT (Internet of Things) solutions designed for operations-heavy industries like transportation, logistics, construction, and manufacturing. The company offers a connected operations cloud that enables organizations to harness IoT data for safety, efficiency, and sustainability improvements. Samsara integrates sensors, AI-driven software, and cloud infrastructure to provide real-time visibility into vehicle fleets, equipment, and facilities. With a cloud-native architecture and mobile-first design, Samsara helps customers transition away from legacy systems. Headquartered in San Francisco, Samsara is publicly traded under the ticker IOT.


Most Recent Earnings (Q1 FY2026)

Subtitle: Outpacing Expectations with Profitable Growth
The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.11, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.06.Revenue for the quarter reached $366.9 million, a 31% increase year-over-year, and above the anticipated $351 million.Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew to $1.54 billion, marking a 31% rise from the previous year. Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 79%, and the company reported a non-GAAP operating income of $51.1 million, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. Despite these positive results, Samsara’s stock experienced a decline of over 10% in after-hours trading, attributed to revenue guidance for the current quarter that slightly edged past expectations, setting it at $372 million compared to the anticipated $369 million.


Founding, Founders, Products, and HQ

Subtitle: From Meraki to Samsara – Serial Entrepreneurs Powering Physical Operations
Samsara was founded in 2015 by Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket, the same duo that previously founded Meraki, a cloud-managed networking company acquired by Cisco for $1.2 billion. Building on their success in cloud networking, they turned their focus to the vast opportunity in IoT for physical operations. Samsara’s founding thesis was that most of the physical world remains disconnected from modern software systems.

The company offers a suite of IoT hardware and cloud software solutions. Key products include vehicle telematics, driver safety tools (like dash cams with AI), equipment monitoring sensors, and mobile workflows for field operators. Its Connected Operations Cloud unifies these elements and allows customers to derive actionable insights from real-time data.

Headquartered in San Francisco, Samsara has expanded globally with offices in London, Paris, and Mexico City. It went public in December 2021.


Funding and IPO

Subtitle: A Decade of Strong Investor Backing
Before its IPO, Samsara raised over $930 million in venture capital. Notable investors include Andreessen Horowitz, General Catalyst, and Tiger Global. The company achieved a private valuation of over $6 billion in 2020 before listing on the NYSE in 2021. At IPO, Samsara was valued at around $11.5 billion and has since traded with significant volatility but strong long-term bullish sentiment due to its scalable, subscription-based model and strong net retention.


Market Landscape

Subtitle: Tapping into the Industrial IoT and Connected Fleet Opportunity
Samsara operates in the industrial IoT (IIoT) and connected fleet management market. This space includes vehicle telematics, asset tracking, predictive maintenance, and safety analytics for industrial and logistics enterprises. The total addressable market (TAM) for connected operations is estimated at over $55 billion globally as of 2024.

By 2030, the industrial IoT market is projected to surpass $200 billion, with a CAGR of 12–15%. Within this, the connected fleet segment alone is expected to grow at a 14% CAGR, reaching over $80 billion by 2030. Samsara’s strong positioning across transportation, logistics, field services, and energy sectors puts it in a favorable position to capture this expansion.


Competitive Landscape

Subtitle: A Fragmented Market with Legacy Players and Startups Alike
Samsara competes with legacy providers like Verizon Connect, Geotab, Omnitracs, and Trimble, as well as newer startups in IoT platforms and connected mobility. What differentiates Samsara is its unified cloud-first platform versus piecemeal solutions offered by incumbents. Many legacy vendors struggle with on-premise deployments, integration complexity, and lack of mobile experience.

Other competitors include KeepTruckin (now Motive), Zonar Systems, and MiX Telematics. Most of these focus either narrowly on fleets or telematics, whereas Samsara offers a broader connected operations solution.


Unique Differentiation

Subtitle: Verticalized, Cloud-Native, and AI-Powered
Samsara’s main edge lies in its vertical software + hardware stack, built for industrial use cases. Unlike many IoT vendors who offer general-purpose platforms, Samsara delivers industry-specific dashboards, automation, and analytics. Its real-time video AI (e.g., detecting distracted driving), ease of onboarding, and out-of-the-box integrations give it an execution advantage.

Furthermore, its Connected Operations Cloud is extensible—offering APIs and integrations with platforms like Salesforce and ServiceNow, enabling enterprise-grade customization. This blend of ease-of-use and enterprise readiness is key to its competitive moat.


Key Management Team

Subtitle: Founders with Deep Cloud DNA

  • Sanjit Biswas (CEO & Co-founder): Previously CEO and co-founder of Meraki. After its $1.2B acquisition by Cisco, he led the Meraki unit before founding Samsara. MIT alum.
  • John Bicket (CTO & Co-founder): Also from Meraki, he leads the technical vision for Samsara. Known for systems architecture and wireless networking expertise.
  • Dominic Phillips (CFO): Joined Samsara in 2021; previously held finance leadership roles at Google and Stripe. He’s overseen the company’s transition to profitability and public-market reporting.

Financial Performance (Last 5 Years)

Subtitle: Strong Growth, Improving Margins, and Profitability in Sight
Samsara has grown its revenue from under $120 million in FY2019 to over $1 billion expected in FY2026, representing a 40%+ CAGR. This growth is fueled by expansion within existing accounts (strong net retention over 115%) and new customer acquisition across sectors.

The company has steadily improved gross margins, reaching over 73% in recent quarters, thanks to cloud software mix and operational scale. While it operated at a net loss for many years, adjusted EBITDA margins have turned positive in recent quarters. Free cash flow also turned positive in FY2025, indicating a maturing SaaS business model.

The balance sheet is healthy, with over $700 million in cash and no long-term debt, giving it ample flexibility for R&D and global expansion. Samsara is balancing growth with operating leverage, suggesting a sustainable path to profitability.


Bull Case for Samsara

  • Expanding TAM: Rapid digital transformation of physical industries presents a multi-decade runway.
  • Cloud and AI Edge: Unique vertical software stack and AI-powered insights create defensible IP.
  • Operating Leverage: Achieving profitability with continued 30%+ top-line growth.

Bear Case for Samsara

  • High Valuation: Premium multiple could compress in a rate-sensitive or slower growth environment.
  • Execution Risk: Scaling across geographies and verticals could strain resources or dilute focus.
  • Competitive Pressure: Entry of large cloud vendors or telcos into industrial IoT could pressure margins.

The stock is in a stage 4 breakdown on the weekly and daily charts with support in the $36 – $41 zone. If the market turns south, there is a likelihood of a retest of the $30 zone. Not a stock to enter until a confirmed reversal.

Discover more from Investment Literacy Coach

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading