Executive Summary:
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company that focuses on developing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Its mRNA platform enables the development of drug candidates for a wide range of diseases, including infectious diseases, cancer, and rare diseases. Moderna’s most well-known product is its COVID-19 vaccine, which was developed at an unprecedented speed and has been widely distributed globally.
Moderna Inc. reported its revenue for the fourth quarter was $2.8 billion, down from $5.1 billion in the same period in 2022. Net income was $217 million for the quarter, compared to $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. Diluted earnings per share were $0.55 for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Stock Overview:
| Ticker | $MRNA | Price | $38.50 | Market Cap | $14.82B |
| 52 Week High | $170.47 | 52 Week Low | $31.94 | Shares outstanding | 384.82M |
Company background:
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company pioneering the development of messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Founded in 2010 by a team of scientists and entrepreneurs, including Derrick Rossi, Timothy A. Springer, Kenneth R. Chien, Robert S. Langer, and Noubar Afeyan, the company emerged from Flagship Pioneering, a venture capital firm focused on advancing cutting-edge biomedical innovations. Moderna’s headquarters are located in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
The company leverages the power of mRNA, a naturally occurring molecule that carries genetic instructions to cells, to instruct the body to produce specific proteins. This approach holds immense promise for developing personalized medicines and tackling a wide range of diseases, including infectious diseases, cancer, and rare disorders. This financial backing has fueled the company’s research and development efforts, allowing them to build a robust pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutics.
Key competitors in the mRNA space include BioNTech, Pfizer, CureVac, and Translate Bio. These companies are also actively developing mRNA-based therapies and vaccines, driving innovation and competition in the field.
Moderna’s mRNA platform has the potential to revolutionize medicine by providing a new approach to disease prevention and treatment. The company continues to invest in research and development, expand its clinical trials, and build strategic partnerships to translate its scientific breakthroughs into life-changing therapies for patients worldwide.
Recent Earnings:
Moderna Inc. released its revenue for the fourth quarter was $2.8 billion, a decline from $5.1 billion in the same period of 2022. The full year 2023, revenue totaled $6.8 billion, a substantial drop from $19.3 billion in 2022.
Earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $0.55, a sharp decline from $3.61 in the same period of the previous year. For the full year 2023, EPS was $1.70, down from $10.20 in 2022. These declines in revenue and earnings align with the decreasing demand for COVID-19 vaccines as the pandemic subsides.
Moderna anticipates net product sales in the range of $3.0 to $3.5 billion. This guidance reflects the company’s focus on its respiratory franchise, including its COVID-19 vaccine and its mRNA-based respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine candidate, mRESVA.
The Market, Industry, and Competitors:
Moderna operates within the rapidly evolving biotechnology sector, specifically focusing on the development and commercialization of mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. This market encompasses a diverse range of therapeutic areas, including infectious diseases, oncology, cardiovascular diseases, and rare disorders. Key market drivers include advancements in mRNA technology, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, growing demand for personalized medicine, and a rising global healthcare expenditure.
The global mRNA therapeutics market size was valued at USD 10.7 billion in 2021 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.7% from 2022 to 2030. This robust growth is driven by the increasing number of clinical trials for mRNA-based therapies, expanding product pipelines, and growing investor interest in the field.
By 2030, the mRNA therapeutics market is anticipated to reach a substantial size, driven by the successful development and commercialization of innovative mRNA-based therapies for various diseases. While specific forecasts vary, the market is expected to witness significant growth, offering significant opportunities for companies like Moderna to capitalize on the transformative potential of mRNA technology.
Unique differentiation:
BioNTech: A German biotechnology company that collaborated with Pfizer to develop one of the leading COVID-19 vaccines. BioNTech is a strong competitor, particularly in the mRNA space, with a robust pipeline of mRNA-based cancer immunotherapies.
Pfizer: A global pharmaceutical giant with a strong presence in vaccine development. Pfizer’s collaboration with BioNTech on the COVID-19 vaccine has solidified its position in the mRNA market.
CureVac: A German biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of mRNA-based therapeutics. CureVac is actively pursuing its own mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine and other therapeutic candidates.
Other players: Other notable competitors include Translate Bio, which was acquired by Sanofi, and smaller biotech companies developing mRNA-based therapies.
Broad and Diverse Pipeline: Moderna has a wide-ranging pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutics targeting various diseases, including infectious diseases, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and rare disorders. This diversified approach reduces reliance on a single product and positions the company for long-term growth.
Personalized Medicine Focus: Moderna aims to develop personalized mRNA therapies tailored to individual patients’ genetic profiles. This approach holds the potential to revolutionize medicine by providing more effective and targeted treatments.
Management & Employees:
Stéphane Bancel: Chief Executive Officer
Stephen Hoge, M.D.: President
Noubar Afeyan, Ph.D.: Co-founder and Chairman of Moderna; CEO, Flagship Pioneering
Financials:
Moderna Inc. has reported a total revenue of approximately $803 million, a substantial increase from previous years, primarily due to its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. By 2021, revenue skyrocketed to about $18.5 billion, marking an extraordinary year for the company as it capitalized on global vaccination efforts. In 2022, revenues decreased to around $19.3 billion as demand for the vaccine began to stabilize and competition increased.
Moderna’s revenue further declined to approximately $6.8 billion, reflecting a 65% drop year-over-year. This decline was attributed to reduced demand for COVID-19 vaccines and a shift in market dynamics as the pandemic transitioned to an endemic phase.
Moderna reported a net loss of approximately $4.7 billion in 2023 after achieving a peak net income of around $12.2 billion in 2021. The earnings growth CAGR over this period is negative due to the substantial losses incurred as the company adjusted to a post-pandemic market environment.
Moderna ended 2024 with a cash balance of approximately $9.5 billion and projected revenues for 2025 between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion. The company is implementing significant cost-cutting measures, aiming to reduce cash operating costs by $1 billion in 2025 and an additional $500 million in 2026. This strategic pivot reflects Moderna’s efforts to stabilize its financial position while pursuing new product approvals and expanding its portfolio into other therapeutic areas beyond infectious diseases
Technical Analysis:
The stock is in a stage 4 markdown (bearish) on the monthly and weekly charts. The daily chart seems to be forming a base (consolidation, stage 1), but this is an easy stock to avoid for the near term, until the reversal is confirmed.
Bull Case:
mRNA Technology Platform: Moderna’s mRNA platform is a powerful tool with the potential to revolutionize medicine. It’s versatile, allowing for the development of therapies for a wide range of diseases.
Robust Product Pipeline: The company has a diverse pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines in various stages of development. Successful clinical trials and regulatory approvals for these candidates could drive significant revenue growth.
Intellectual Property: Moderna’s strong intellectual property portfolio protects its technology and provides a competitive advantage.
Bear Case:
Clinical Trial Risks: The success of Moderna’s pipeline depends on the successful outcome of ongoing clinical trials. Unexpected setbacks or negative trial results could significantly impact the company’s stock price.
Regulatory Hurdles: Obtaining regulatory approvals for new therapies can be challenging and time-consuming. Delays in regulatory approval processes could impact the company’s timelines and revenue projections.
Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges: Scaling up manufacturing and ensuring consistent supply chain operations can be complex. Production issues or supply chain disruptions could negatively impact the company’s ability to meet demand.
